Meta began internal testing of a prediction market app called “Takes,” according to The Wall Street Journal, with employees wagering virtual “cred” points. The app does not involve real money, unlike rivals such as Kalshi or Polymarket, and correct predictions increase a user’s cred.
Meta’s internal testing of Takes follows a directive from CEO Mark Zuckerberg in June 2026, when he instructed a small internal team to develop a prediction market app then named “Arena,” according to The New York Times. That project was envisioned to use a “video game-like” points system initially, with the possibility of introducing money in the future, the Times reported. Arena targeted users aged 18 to 34, with a goal of at least 100 million monthly users, and was led by Vice President of Product Ime Archibong, according to the report.
Kalshi’s monthly trading volume reached approximately $98 billion in October 2026, up from about $16.8 billion in May 2026, according to the Journal.
The name change from “Arena” to “Takes” suggests a shift toward a lighter, social media-oriented approach, though the reason for the change has not been reported, according to The Wall Street Journal. Meta refers to employee testing of new apps before public release as “dogfooding,” the Journal reported.
The app is one of numerous “small bets” rather than a massive investment, according to the Journal. Zuckerberg told employees at a spring internal meeting that he had been discussing “building as many as 50 new apps” with Chief Product Officer Chris Cox, the Journal reported. At a July 2026 earnings call, Zuckerberg stated, “It will be much easier to launch new apps in the future,” citing AI-driven software development efficiency, according to the Journal.
Meta has not disclosed how Takes would generate revenue, whether it would integrate with Facebook or Instagram, or whether it would be a standalone app, according to the Journal. No user metrics, commercial targets, or launch commitments have been disclosed, and the Journal noted that Zuckerberg has never spoken about the prediction market app in public.
The internal testing comes amid rapid growth in the prediction market industry. Kalshi’s valuation surged from $2 billion in June 2025 to $40 billion in October 2026, a 20-fold increase in 16 months, the Journal reported. Polymarket’s trading volume grew from about $8.8 billion in May 2026 to about $14.7 billion in June 2026, according to the Journal. Polymarket received up to $2 billion in investment from Intercontinental Exchange, and in August 2026, negotiations were reported for a $1 billion raise at a $21 billion valuation, the Journal reported. The total for eight regulated U.S. exchanges reached approximately $120.7 billion in October 2026, though figures vary by aggregator, according to the Journal.
The industry faces legal challenges. On Nov. 12, Louisiana filed an enforcement action against operators including Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, Coinbase, and Gemini, arguing event contracts constitute gambling products, according to the Journal. A Louisiana state court issued a temporary restraining order restricting unlicensed event-contract activity, the Journal reported. On Nov. 13, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced a lawsuit against Arkansas, challenging state enforcement targeting Kalshi and arguing exclusive federal jurisdiction, according to the Journal. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig criticized criminal enforcement threats against prediction market executives and advocated judicial resolution of the jurisdictional dispute, the Journal reported. Several states, including New York, have sued prediction market operators, claiming illegal gambling operations, according to the Journal.
Takes’ points do not represent a cryptocurrency and have no announced monetary value, avoiding the need for clearing, collateral, and withdrawal arrangements, according to the Journal. Meta’s points-only model avoids direct exposure to the cash-wagering model, though the legal assessment could change if real-money stakes are introduced, the Journal reported.
Not every Meta product makes it out of the testing phase; names or features may change before release, and past apps like “Lasso” were discontinued, according to the Journal. Meta has not confirmed a public release date, whether real-money trading will be introduced, or whether points might someday be converted into real money, according to the Journal. A survey from S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan indicates that more than 60% of prediction market users are younger than 35, relevant to Meta’s efforts to retain younger audiences, according to the Journal.
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