TikTok Says We’re Studying ‘% Probability Of Rain’ Flawed So We Investigated
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It seems some of us have no idea how to read the weather, and a viral TikTok proved just that. Does the percentage shown in forecasts indicate how likely it is that your area will be rained or does it indicate the percentage of your area that will be covered by rain? Let’s discuss.
As early as 1983 Martha Wash and Izora Armstead We’ve come together to face the dangers of storms and rain, and we’ve learned all about the dangers of rain. From then on, they were known as The Weather Girls, who survived the great men’s rain of the early 80s.
My point here is after all of these women have done for us, we should definitely think a little more about the TikTok videos that we are blindly listening to.
Thanks to TikTok user @scarlettmoffatt / Scarlett Moffatt (which is quite famous in the UK) some people have started asking what the hell a weather forecast percentage actually means.
“I just found out that in the weather app, if it said 30% rain, I thought it meant a 30% chance of rain,” says Moffatt in her video.
“That doesn’t mean that. This means that 30% of your area is covered by rain. “
Personally, I would love to say what the hell. Have we been lied to all our lives? Is the Bureau of Meteorology conspiring against us?
They should teach you how to read weather apps at school and that ???? ???? #wetter #fyp #fact #foryoupage
♬ Original sound – Scarlett Moffatt
Well, it turns out the answer is actually no. This video is “dead wrong” according to the Bureau of Meteorology, so don’t freak out.
In this little blog post, the BoM explained exactly how to read the rain forecasts that will help anyone who is still confused.
“Technically, this value [‘chance of rain’] refers to the probability that the selected location will receive more than the measurable minimum amount of precipitation (0.2 mm) in the 24 hours from midnight to midnight, ”writes BoM.
“A 30% chance of rain tomorrow means that it will rain from ten days like tomorrow to three.”
In non-nerd terms, this means that if you see 30% rain it means coincidence, not area.
This may of course be different around the world, but if you’re in Australia don’t fret if the people on TikTok tell you otherwise.